Every major summer concert rumour, analysed for accuracy.

Radiohead! Muse! Flight of the Conchords! My Chemical Romance! Electric Avenue! Nine Inch Nails! Gorillaz! Fred Again! Olivia Rodrigo! Laneway! And the Black Eyed Peas?

Kia ora! There’s nothing like a bit of concert speculation, so today I’m analysing every single summer tour rumour I can find in an attempt to see if they might be true. First, we have some headlines to get through…

• Concepts for a new outdoor live music venue in Tāmaki Makaurau have been unveiled. Work on the reimagined $2.5 million Te Wai Ōrea Western Springs Bowl begins shortly, including installing a semi-permanent stage, and it will host up to 30,000 people. “I’m 60 years old and this is the thing that’s made me the most excited I’ve ever been about anything I’ve ever done in this industry,” veteran manager and promoter Campbell Smith tells The Spinoff.

• In tour news, Home Brew will expand on their recent, awesome one-off show with a full Australasian tour of 11 dates, including three at The Hollywood. (Tom Scott is teasing more copies of Last Week on vinyl too.) Tickets are here. Newsletter faves Soft Bait are heading out on their biggest tour yet in September, with dates and tickets here. And hip-hop legends The Pharcyde play The Powerstation on December 10, with tickets here. I’m definitely going to that.

• If you’re after discounted concert tickets, Live Nation has discounts of up to 40% for shows by 5 Seconds of Summer, Chet Faker, Guns N’ Roses, Hilary Duff, Joji, Rise Against and Westlife. It’s a bad sign for the touring industry but a chance to see some good acts real cheap. Be quick: the sale ends today.

• If you have a Disney+ subscription have I got good news for you: you can spend all weekend streaming this weekend’s Lollapalooza festival. It’s all underway now, Lorde plays today, and sets by The Smashing Pumpkins, The xx, John Summit, Charli XCX, Olivia Dean, Wolf Alice and Ethel Cain are coming up. Makes me wish I was in Grant Park eating deep dish pizza again. Pitchfork has the timetable.

Who’s lighting up our 2026-27 summer concert season?

My hood is permanently up. I’m wearing two pairs of socks. Every morning I pull back the curtains to be greeted by a grass lawn covered in white frosted tips. I live in Tāmaki Makaurau so call me soft if you want. But it is fucking cold and I am not used to it. The other day, I found a five-pack of adhesive heat strips abandoned on the footpath. I picked them up and intended to hand them out to my family for a laugh. Right now, as I sit here typing this, I have two of them attached to my T-shirt. They truly work.

Forgive me, then, for casting an eye forward to a time when I don’t need to forage for warmth. The summer season is starting to sizzle. This week we’ve already had a very decent Rhythm & Vines line-up confirmed and a shock System of a Down and Faith No More stadium show for February descend from the heavens. There’s so much more coming. So, today, I thought I’d analyse every rumour that’s come my way, from anonymous texts to Instagram voice messages to bung old Reddit threads to all of you, in this newsletter’s chat room. Because we’re allowed to dream a little when it’s this damn chilly, right? Let’s get into it…

It’s business time.

Let’s start with an easy one. Flight of the Conchords’ Jemaine Clement and Bret McKenzie already played four warm-up shows at Meow Nui in April, plus three bigger US shows in May, one of which earned a five-star review from The Guardian. A bigger local tour is a certainty. We know this thanks to this recent RNZ interview. “We’re going to play in New Zealand later on in the year … we’re going to do a little tour,” Clement confirmed. Last time Conchords did this was all the way back in 2012 when the duo sold out Spark (then Vector) Arena three times. Expect them to book that venue, and others, on a tour that probably won’t be so little…

Would they DARE?

The recent Tottenham Stadium performance by Gorillaz (“staggering” said The Guardian) was splashed all over my social media feed a few weeks back. So no one wants to see Damon Albarn’s cartoon pop group live more than me. Their 2010 show here was delightful, this year’s album The Mountain is fantastic, and they seem to be in fine form. Could they be destined for Electric Avenue? Possibly. This year’s line-up included many British acts, so they’d fit the bill nicely. But there are so many people in Gorillaz’ touring party, so it can’t be cheap getting them all here. It’s a 50-50 call. (Other rumours for Electric Avenue: Jungle, Tame Impala, Charli XCX, Skrillex.)

A blast from the past.

A single Muse rumour popped up in Boiler Room Aotearoa’s chat this week (join in the fun here!) and it got me thinking. My first thought was, “Meh”. Muse haven’t played here since the 2010 Big Day Out and their brand of wigged-out post-apocalyptic hystrionics has fallen well out of favour. But Matt Bellamy’s been popping up in the strangest places (with Anyma at Coachella?) and their recent album scored solid reviews. A major act is rumoured to be playing an outdoor show at the revamped Western Springs in October. Muse has a huge October-sized gap in their touring schedule. I’m just saying, if the pieces fit …

Will we join the Black Parade?

My Chemical Romance haven’t released new music since 2010, and they were last here in 2023. But why stop when their goth-rock-emo-stomp remains in huge demand and recent reviews call their Black Parade 20th anniversary tour “monumentally madcap?” The rumours are that Gerard Way and co could headline Australia’s rock and metal festival Good Things. The only question is whether or not they’ll make the trip our way. Tool and Limp Bizkit did it, but KoRn did not. We’ll have to wait and see…

Fred Again, again?

Fred Again’s only on this list because my 16-year-old son will not shut up about him. If it happens, expect him to operate the same way as last time: fast turnaround show announcements, massive online ticketing drama and constant social media updates from the man himself. (Plus, Messi!) It’s exhausting, but he also puts on one hell of a live show. So count me in. My son is sitting here hoping it’s not R18…

Will everything be in its right place?

A Radiohead visit is definitely on the cards. Ed O’Brien hinted at this in a recent Rolling Stone interview, saying a 2027 tour of North America, South America, and Asia/Oceania is happening. The only question is whether Aotearoa is in the mix, or if they set up a residency, doing multiple nights in the same venue, as they did across Europe last year.

Let’s get it started.

Sorry to break the news, but the Black Eyed Peas are still touring hard, even without the pulling power of Fergie, who hasn’t been in the group since 2018. Australian New Year’s festival Beyond the Valley has them booked, so I half expected the Fergie-less BEPs to show up on the Rhythm & Vines line-up, but no dice. Someone will snap them up, surely?

Nine Inch Nails? Or Nine Inch Noize?

This one comes from me. I’m trying to will it into being. I don’t care which iteration of Trent Reznor’s iconic apocalyptic 90s act makes the trip down under. I’m just desperate to see him again. David Farrier has seen five Nine Inch Nails shows in the past year, and that’s just not fair. We haven’t had a visit since 2014. A Good Things festival appearance with a Spark Arena sideshow sounds great. Come on Trent. Bring your zombies.

Who the fuck is going to headline Laneway?

I’ve save Laneway for last because it’s such a hard festival to predict. Charli XCX pushed the Western Springs one-day event to new heights, then Chappell Roan took things even further. To continue that trajectory, Laneway needs to sign another big name, an Olivia Rodrigo or Sabrina Carpenter, for 2027. But neither have visited Aotearoa before, so a Laneway debut seems unlikely. Instead, I’m predicting the festival will go back to its roots. Remember its 2010 debut, when Florence + the Machine and The xx headlined? It might not reach the heights of the past two years, but it would be a nice nod to the past while still filling the new Bowl. I cannot wait to be there with some sun on my back.

It’s been a huge week at Boiler Room Aotearoa so I’d like to extend a massive welcome to everyone who’s new here! This newsletter is dedicated to covering Aotearoa’s music industry in as much depth as possible. The only way I can make newsletters like this one is because of my 153 contributers. I’m aiming to get that number to 200 by Christmas. So, if you can afford it and if it won’t cause financial difficulty, please consider supporting me… and enjoy your weekend! Stream Lollapalooza! Is anyone going to the Silversun Pickups show? See you there!

Bonus beat.