The dodgy, dicey, deceitful music trends we'll see more of this year.

Yes, AI is on the list.

Predictions are hard.

I don’t own a crystal ball.

No one does.

Would you even want to?

Wouldn’t that make life insanely boring? Lining up every week for a Lotto ticket you know is going to win? Knowing the outcome of every football game forever more?

What would be the point?

But there are some things that are becoming clearer, a few things we probably can predict. For the music industry, this year will be another messy one.

Troubling trends are bubbling away in the background, and this is the year those trends are going to rise to the surface.

Spotify? Big problem.

Music journalism? Major problem.

Live music’s reliance on nostalgia? Super big problem.

AI? Huge fucking problem.

So, today, let’s discuss some of those things.

That way, at the end of the year, I’ll be able to circle back and look at how right or wrong I was and own up to the things I might have missed.

Here are the things I believe are going to dominate the music industry discourse – and, probably, this newsletter – over the next 12 months.

Here we go…

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You’re going to need to go searching for your favourite music again.

Spotify sucks. On that, everyone agrees. Major artists are the only ones making any real money on there, and the dominant streaming service has already indicated that won’t change anytime soon with its minimum threshold plans. For artists based in Aotearoa, most are paid a pittance. (There are exceptions, like the death-rappers SXMPRA and Lil Bubblegum, who are making it work for them.)

My prediction? Looking for better revenue streams, artists will need to cultivate their own fan bases outside of major labels and big streamers. That’s already happening: right now, you can only listen to Blackstar’s second album on the podcast app Luminary. Earl Sweatshirt’s Voir Dire came out on Gala Music for a full month. M.I.A just released the mixtape Bells Collection through her own website. TikTok algorithms can push random songs from unknowns onto the charts, niche streaming services may find room to grow, and vinyl’s ongoing resurgence plays a role here too.

I’m into this. I’m happy for my money to go straight to artists rather than being taxed by middle men. Besides, searching for music, digging through crates, and trying to find things you can’t find on the shelves, then connecting with the artists themselves, is part of the fun. I’m old enough to remember trying to download The Grey Album on dial-up then burning those mp3’s to a CD-ROM. I’ve had vinyl delivered to my house by the artist who made the music. Going to a Home Brew pop-up store and buying a tee, then chatting to Tom Scott is a huge thrill. More of that, please.

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Mainstream music reporting will get much worse.

I spent the last few months of 2023 discussing just how bad music journalism has become. It’s only the very beginning of 2024 and already we are seeing it decline so much further. Right now, I’m pretty much done with it. It can get in the bin. Honestly, I struggle to find the words to express my absolute disgust at how NZ Herald covered some of our summer music festivals over the past few weeks, but let’s give it a go.